This report is the Canadian Climate Institute’s independent assessment of the federal government’s 2025 report on progress toward Canada’s 2030 emissions reduction target. It concludes that the federal report paints a credible picture of Canada’s progress but does not offer an adequate policy response to the growing gap between the country’s emissions and its climate targets. Canada is not on track to achieve any of its climate goals. While the country has some powerful policies to reduce its emissions and make the economy more competitive, in recent years federal and provincial governments have removed or weakened more climate policies than they have strengthened.
As a result, the country is likely to fall even further behind its targets than it was just two years ago, when the last progress report was published.In its December 2025 progress report, the Government of Canada identified priority measures that could significantly reduce emissions in the years ahead, even if they do not put Canada on track to achieve the 2030 target. Yet our analysis shows that some of these measures, which are largely focused on industrial emissions, will need strengthening to fulfill their potential. Our analysis also indicates that additional policies are likely needed to drive reductions in other parts of the economy. Canada has made progress, but reaching the country’s climate goals will require more effort from all orders of government.
