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Review report on the calculation of German greenhouse gas emissions for 2025 and the projection data for 2026

This report provides a detailed assessment of the way in which Germany calculates its emissions.
After reviewing the data, the Expert Council on Climate Issues sees no reason to assume emission values ​​other than those calculated by the Federal Environment Agency. According to the Federal Environment Agency, German greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 amounted to 648.9 Mt CO2 eq. excluding land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). This figure represents a decrease of 0.1%, meaning that GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) remained almost constant year-on-year. The comparison of the early energy balance estimate with the final energy balance for 2024 shows a higher overall quality, as well as for individual energy balance lines and individual energy sources, compared to the previous year.
For the LULUCF sector, the German Environment Agency reports a fundamental change in methodology and the use of numerous new data sources.The Expert Council assumes that the estimate of GHG emissions in the LULUCF sector has been improved by the adjustments made, especially since these comply with the UNFCCC guidelines. The targets set out in the European Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) were missed for the first time in 2024, after having been met in the years 2021 to 2023 according to the reported emissions data. Particularly high shares of the greenhouse gas emissions falling under the ESR are attributable to the building sector.

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An aim to achieve a quantifiable outcome within a given time-frame, set by an institution such as a national government.

Policy instruments are techniques or tools used by governing authorities to promote certain policies in order to achieve predetermined goals. Put simply, instruments are how a government tries to achieve its goals, with this taxonomy being focused on national policy instruments.

Risk is the potential for adverse consequences resulting from the dynamic interplay between (climate-related) hazards, exposure, and vulnerability of affected human or ecological systems.

Groups  of people who are adversely affected by climate change or the response to it

A set of principles, processes, and practices that build economic and political power to shift from an extractive economy to a regenerative economy.

Renewable energy means all forms of energy produced from renewable sources in a sustainable manner.

Fossil fuel is a generic term for non-renewable energy sources such as coal, fossil gas, and oil (including crude oil, and petroleum products), that can be used for electricity and heat generation. Fossil fuels are hydrocarbons formed from pressurised and heated organic material buried over millions of years.

Molecules in the atmosphere that play a key role in the greenhouse effect by trapping heat radiating from Earth’s surface.

Area of the economy in which actors engage in identical or related activities.

In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate change and its effects, in order to moderate harm, increase resilience or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate change and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate change and its effects.

The management and allocation of funds, assets and investments to meet various objectives

Any compulsory, unrequited payment to the government levied on corporations or individuals. This can be for environmental reasons, such as introducing a Carbon tax to set a price that emitters must pay for the greenhouse gases they emit.

Terrestrial means "of the earth" and relates to the risks to ecological system that includes all living organisms and their interactions within land-based environments, such as forests, grasslands, and deserts.

Actions or measures to adapt terrestrial systems to climate change.

This sector includes firms and individuals offering specialised expertise in fields such as law, accounting, consulting, science and engineering.

A ban is a legal action that prevents the sale or supply of a product or service, or that recalls a product from the market. Examples are bans on SF6, greenwashing, fossil fuel advertisement or single-use plastics.

Energy derived from biological compounds that are renewable due to their short life cycle within the carbon dioxide cycle.

A drought is an extended period of unusually dry weather marked by a significant and sustained lack of precipitation, falling below a specific threshold over a large area for more than a month

Activities involving the catching, processing, and selling of fish for food, recreation, and industry.

This sector provides medical services, manufactures medical equipment, and develops pharmaceuticals to maintain and improve health.

Activities of businesses and institutions that provide financial services and products to individuals and organisations.

A tax advantage is an economic benefit applied to certain accounts or investments that are, by law, tax-reduced, tax-deferred, or tax-free. This can apply to investments in areas such as green energy projects or the agricultural sector, where tax advantages can help manage financial risks.

Actions to adapt human health, healthcare systems and well-being to climate change.

Air pollution involves harmful contaminants in the air, affecting both indoor and outdoor environments. It can lead to health issues like respiratory diseases and heart problems, and climate impacts such as global warming. Pollutants can damage plants, trees, habitats, and water bodies like rivers and lakes.

A commitment to balance GHG emissions with removal by a certain point in time, effectively reducing the net emissions to zero

Activities of industries that extract natural resources, such as mining, oil, and gas, for commercial use.

Oil is a combustible liquid fossil fuel composed mainly of hydrocarbons, occurring as crude oil and refined into petroleum products such as petrol, diesel and kerosene.

Activities that relate to the production of goods and services from forests.

Actions or measures to adapt freshwater systems to climate change.

A financial institution that manages a country's currency and can promote climate-related initiatives through green monetary policy and other means.

This sector involves managing waste treatment, sanitation, pollution control and environmental cleanup.

People who are less able to respond to the effects of climate change due to having limited financial or physical assets

Removing subsidies can help reduce costs, better align economic incentives with environmental goals, and promote equity. This can mitigate environmental harm and discourage harmful behaviour. However, it may also end support for renewable energy development or negatively impact communities, households, and businesses.

Activities that involve planning, designing and building infrastructure, residential, and commercial structures.

Production of electricity and heat from solar irradiation.

Conditions that enhance the feasibility of adaptation options. Enabling conditions include finance, technological innovation, strengthening policy instruments, institutional capacity, multi-level governance and changes in human behaviour and lifestyles.

This sector involves the distribution, treatment, and conservation of water resources.

This sector provides communication services, software development, and IT solutions.

woman and genders outside of the gender binary

This sector involves activities to move goods and people, alongside the storage of products.

Fossil gas, commonly known as natural gas, is a fossil fuel consisting chiefly of methane with smaller amounts of other hydrocarbons and trace gases, found in underground deposits.

A long-lived, colourless gas, chiefly emitted from fossil fuel combustion, deforestation and cement production.

This sector involves the wholesale and retail selling of goods.

A subsidy is a direct or indirect payment to individuals or businesses, typically provided as a government cash payment or a specific tax reduction.

Tradable permits are market-based tools that grant permission for specific activities, frequently used to regulate emissions. These permits can be issued within a trading system to manage environmental impacts.

The activities of industries that transforms raw materials into finished goods through industrial processes.

The activities of industries involved in the production, distribution, and sale of energy, including electricity, gas, and renewables.

This sector creates and distributes information and entertainment through television, radio, print, and digital platforms.

Heat extracted from the ground, usually in the form of hot water or steam and typically referred to as hydrothermal fluid.

The release of heat-trapping gases, primarily from human activities such as burning fossil fuels, agriculture and industry.

Any substance with chemical properties that can cause physical harm to people or damage the environment, including ammonia, carbon monoxide, phosphine, chlorine, arsenic, cadmium, mercury, pesticides, dioxins, microplastics, benzene, asbestos, aflatoxins, fluoride, methanol, and toxins from marine sources.

Slow onset events evolve gradually from incremental changes over many years or from increased frequency or intensity of recurring events. As defined in the Cancun Adaptation Framework (2010), slow onset events include risks and impacts from rising temperatures, desertification, biodiversity loss, land and forest degradation, glacial retreat, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and salinization.

A target to reduce the prevalence of a greenhouse gas over a specific time frame

Activities that involve the cultivation of crops and raising of livestock for food, fibre, and other products essential for human life and industry.

Coal is a combustible sedimentary rock formed from carbonised plant matter, rich in carbon and hydrocarbons, and occurring in several main types including hard coal and brown coal.

Either money or something of monetary value is transferred between two or more organisations, people or countries.

Social protection systems consist of policies that help people manage social risks in order to prevent poverty and maintain decent incomes and living standards

Kinetic energy of airflow transformed into useful energy, mostly electrical energy.

Compulsory, required payments to the government that are levied more-or-less in proportion to the services provided. Fees and charges range from entrance fees to national parks, charges on land-based sewage discharge.

Actions or measures to adapt freshwater, coastal and marine systems to climate change.

A potent, short-lived greehouse gas, largely released from livestock, fossil fuel extraction and waste management.

Activities of government agencies and institutions that provide public services, enforce laws and manage public resources.

Extreme weather refers to events where a weather variable exceeds (or falls below) a threshold. Meaning it is significantly different from the average or usual weather pattern.

Social inclusion is the process of improving the terms on which individuals and groups take part in society—improving the ability, opportunity, and dignity of those disadvantaged on the basis of their identity.

Review report on the calculation of German greenhouse gas emissions for 2025 and the projection data for 2026

Target

Policy instrument

Risk

Impacted group

Just transition

Renewable energy

Fossil fuel

Greenhouse gas

Economic sector

Adaptation/resilience

Finance